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EXplain the blunder

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01-06-2023 , 06:30 AM

merlot128

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 82

Can anyone explain why my move is a 0.94 blunder and why the suggested move is so much better?

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01-06-2023 , 09:37 AM

sdfsgf

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 667

With your play, when you eventually have to clear the 13 point and leave a blot there you will have to dodge a double direct shot (1s and 6s, a total of about 24 numbers). On the other hand, if you go to the 14, if you blot when clearing it you’ll only have to dodge a single direct shot (2s) plus a few indirects (7s), a total of about 16 numbers.

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01-07-2023 , 09:08 AM

merlot128

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 82

OK, for the reason you have pointed out I can see that 13/9(2) is a better move, but does it really justify making mine a blunder? I think there must be more to this.

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01-07-2023 , 02:12 PM

sdfsgf

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 667

Even though your play is a blunder it only loses 3.5% more often and I think the effect I suggested is enough to account for a 3.5% difference in win chances (interested to hear if anyone sees something else going on though).

BTW, I didn’t just figure this one out when you posted it, this is a common decision with 44 in this type of game and I’ve made almost this exact blunder before.

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01-07-2023 , 02:59 PM

RolldUpTrips

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,334

Quote:

Originally Posted by merlot128

OK, for the reason you have pointed out I can see that 13/9(2) is a better move, but does it really justify making mine a blunder? I think there must be more to this.

The general idea is that when you're playing against the bar point, it's good to clear the midpoint when possible, and in this case your back checkers won't be stranded so it's a very convenient time to clear the point of maximum danger.

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