Hello,

I started studying Backgammon from scratch around a week ago. So far I mastered the openings and became very solid with my opening replies by now. For the latter I used bgquiz.com, as recommended in this forum. Next week I will start to train with the XG software. (Currently travelling and don't have a Windows setup with me).

The reason I want to learn Backgammon is that I'm friendly with a very wealthy gentleman, who I know from a highstakes poker homegame I play. He's older and doesn't come to the poker game because of the Covid19 situation. He has been playing backgammon for probably 30+ years, but is the kind of person that will make a lot of -EV plays because of gut feeling and overall poor strategy. (The man is a dream for every casino, at Blackjack for example you might see him drawing on a 17, if the dealer holds an 8).

I would like to understand more about Variance and Expected Value in Backgammon (playing without the doubling cube), in order to get an idea on how to set the stakes. Would appreciate if you guys could give me some pointers.

Thanks

Jens

Set the stakes to the lowest amount he'll play for. If he's been playing for 30+ years and you've been playing for a week, he's going to crush you for a long time. You'll learn from playing him, but you want to pay as little as possible for the lessons.

Thanks for your swift reply as well as for all the time and effort you're putting into this forum. I already found so much valuable information here.

I will put in the hours over the next few weeks to lay a solid foundation. I really enjoy the process of learning the game, especially with all the great resources
and tools we have today. Once done, I will follow your advise and start playing him at low stakes.

Just out of curiousity: Being a worldclass player, what is your EV in a single match against a run-of-the-mill opponent (somebody who knows basic strategy)?

In a single game against an opponent who just has a basic knowledge of the game, I'd guess a world-class player would have something like a 55-45 edge.

That close? I would have thought about 60-40.
(I mean if you count gammons, so not DMP.)

Wouldn´t it be funny if your mark were a follower of this forum?

Haha, that would be funny indeed, highly unlikely though :-)

Thank you!