I just ran into this problem and got it wrong. I had gnu set on grandmaster and tutor mode and the best play was the one I chose last. Anyone have a conceptual framework for this type of position?
I safety the blot (11/5 for flexibility) and then play 13/8 because it's the only thing that makes sense.
Reasons for not running the back checker:
1) You're behind in the race
2) You've got the bar point made
3) You've got a 3 point board (which is useful when you hit something)
4) You've got a few spares in the outfield which gives you some time and they will always be moved safely
You can see by just playing around a little that your opponent is quite likely to leave you with a direct shot in the next couple rolls if you stay back, but if you step up with 24/18, he's got a lot of play in his home board to avoid leaving you shots.
I safety the blot (11/5 for flexibility) and then play 13/8 because it's the only thing that makes sense.
Reasons for not running the back checker:
1) You're behind in the race
2) You've got the bar point made
3) You've got a 3 point board (which is useful when you hit something)
4) You've got a few spares in the outfield which gives you some time and they will always be moved safely
You can see by just playing around a little that your opponent is quite likely to leave you with a direct shot in the next couple rolls if you stay back, but if you step up with 24/18, he's got a lot of play in his home board to avoid leaving you shots.
I'm with Aaron. Can't explain it better than he just did.