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Early double? Early double?

05-22-2009 , 10:59 PM
I played this online and am not sure how to make/show a diagram or whatever, so I apologize for that up front. This came from a match, but I'm curious as to the decision without including match factors. Also, I'd rather someone not just tell me the GNU/Snowie analysis, as I have GNU. I'm trying to understand the cube from a qualitative perspective, and if someone can help me work through this in words that would be awesome. Anyway, on to the decision

1. Opponent wins opening roll with 54 and plays 13/8 and 24/20
2. I throw my miracle 33 and play 8/5*(2) and 6/3(2)
3. Opponent dances
4. Cube decision?

Is this too early? I do feel as though I have good threats as Bill says are necessary - 66, 42, 53, and any seven (although with 61 I would imagine I should be making my bar rather than hitting). Also of course there are other good rolls, they just arent big "threats" (44 and 33, for example).

I doubled, is this bad?
Early double? Quote
05-23-2009 , 01:37 AM
Not bad at all...good double for sure. You could lose your market if you bring down some builders and your opponent dances again, because you will be threatening to blitz and close him out. On the other hand, even after a bad sequence for you, you will probably still be a favorite due to your superior home board. So indeed this is a great time for a double even though it's so early.
Your opponent still does have a take, because you only have 8 checkers ready to attack ("in the zone"). As a result he's still got a good chance of anchoring and retaining some winning chances. If you had a couple more attackers, or had advanced your own back checkers, it's a pass.
There is a good chapter in Backgammon Boot Camp about blitz doubles; I think there are some in 501 too but I don't have my copy with me right now.
Early double? Quote
05-23-2009 , 09:11 AM
Good analysis by gammoner. This particular sequence (split, 33 making two points, fan) is a standard strong double and take. The take is actually the harder question -- the position is worth about +0.9 in most cases.
Early double? Quote
05-24-2009 , 01:58 PM
Thanks to both of you
Early double? Quote

      
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