Quote:
Originally Posted by dchoye
When is it “too good” to gammon?
I read 30% gammon chance is threshold is when player should “slow play their hand” and not double
That is incorrect. In money play (for simplicity since gammon value varies with score in match play), it actually depends on how likely you are to lose. It is essentially a risk/reward situation. You have a safe option of cashing the game now and winning single or the risky option of playing on and potentially winning double. Single wins when playing on are a wash, so the risk is losing, the reward is winning gammon.
On a 1 cube, playing on risks 2 points (-1 for a loss vs.+1 for cashing). The reward is 1 point (2 points for gammon vs 1 point for cashing). Since you are risking 2 points to gain 1, you must be at least twice as likely to win gammon as you are to lose. There is no set gammon probability that makes you too good. You can be too good if you win 3% gammons if you only have a 1% chance of losing. If you have 30% gammon chances but 20% losing chances, you are not too good - you should cash.