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Double Question Double Question

04-13-2014 , 01:39 PM
This position came up and I basically went 5 rolls in a row where I was supposed to double (According to XG, not doubling is a -0.127 error).(ignore the 6-2) I thought while playing that my opponent had too much racing equity for me to double the cube. Anybody able to weigh in on this position and why it's such an easy cube?

White - Pips 79. Match Score 0/5

Black - Pips 115. Match Score 0/5
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04-13-2014 , 10:23 PM
Black's plan here is pretty straightforward:

(1) Make the 13-pt (to block 66) and put spares on the 14, 15, and 12-points if he can. If not, bring checkers to the inner board for hitters.

(2) When White runs out, Black should have a double or triple shot. If he hits, slot the bar and pay off to a 1-6.

(3) Make the bar, then hit or slot the 1-point.

(4) Once you close the board, you're between a 97% and 98% favorite.

Sometimes Black picks up a second checker in the process of closing his board, which gets about 35% gammon chances.

With this scenario coming, Black should double and it's a big pass.
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