I am actually embarrassed to ask this question. If I make two times a 0.2 error, then is this equal to a 0.4 error?

I think the answer is 'yes', your error total for a match is just the sum of the individual errors. But I don't have a link to anyplace where Xavier has gone into detail about this.

I have noticed that if you commit a blunder early in the game, you can mitigate the harmful effects through good play. A blunder right near the end of the game leads to a much worse score. I'm not sure how exactly this relates to your question though.

Maybe you should replace the word -can- by -might-.
If you make a 0.2 error, it means that you win 0.2 point less on average. So statistically there will be events that your error will not lead to equity loss. This is regardless whether it is near the end of the game or not. Though psychologically you likely will say that it was due to your good play.
However, if your opponent is worse than you, his errors are going to make good for your blunder on average.

that's what i was thinking, early blunders can be overcame with good play/dice. late blunders lets say when bearing off with a 44 moving checkers from the 6/2 5/1 instead of pealing off 4 in a no contact situation is a huge blunder that is unlikely to ever be offset by good anything, i suppose 22 & 11 rolled would help as the higher points might be stripped causing the force pealing of checkers.

i realize thats a extreme example but it serves a point, late blunders are more damaging,


how is all that calculated? I dont have the math background to answer this, but i'm curious

Try setting up a couple positions and looking at the sizes of the errors.

There's not really a math thing going on. The fact that early errors "can" be overcome with good play is already embedded into the equity calculation. The equity values for the early positions and late positions are simply numbers that reflect the values the bots think those positions are worth.

Edit: A little bit more detail... just a little.

The equity of any given position is determined by the bot's neural network. Just imagine it's a black box that magically knows how often you will win based on the position. There's a lot of calculation going on based on computer learning techniques and such, but that's not important.

The bot then determines the best play based on the possible positions you can reach from a given roll. Your error is the difference between the equity of your chosen play and the equity of the best play.

thank you for your explanation, i will put in some positions, what you said makes sense.

i'm in Monte Carlo now should be in Vegas in 2 weeks. yay!!!

best
eric

Why does a cube error count so much compared to a move error? An incorrect take, for example,even if it's unclear, often counts more towards your performance rating than a major blunder in moves.

Could you give an example?