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DMP stack or hit loose DMP stack or hit loose

01-13-2022 , 11:17 AM
01-13-2022 , 05:18 PM
Stacking with 15/8 is not a good idea. Safe for now, but you lose a lot of flexibility and gain nothing long term.

I'm tempted to go 15/11 8/5* and fight for the 5-pt.
01-13-2022 , 09:46 PM
If 11 and 5 is wrong, I don't want to be right.
01-14-2022 , 09:03 AM
1. Rollout¹ 15/11 8/5* eq:-0.175
Player: 41.27% (G:9.62% B:0.84%)
Opponent: 58.73% (G:24.01% B:3.78%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.178..-0.171) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes

2. Rollout¹ 15/8 eq:-0.194 (-0.020)
Player: 40.28% (G:8.48% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 59.72% (G:14.98% B:1.70%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.198..-0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75574117
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
01-14-2022 , 11:53 AM
I thought 15/8 was very clear here (small race lead + one back checker escaped + opponent has better board => play safe when you can), so I did my own XG rollout (same settings as yours) and got 15/8 better by .04. Any chance you rolled out a slightly different position?
01-14-2022 , 03:33 PM
It's possible, but now I don't have the file any more. Let me just run it again.
01-15-2022 , 10:11 AM
I reran the rollout (with the same seed) and got the same result.

01-15-2022 , 11:03 AM
Problem solved. I didn't see it was DMP and rolled it out as a money game with centered cube. There 15/8 is clear.

After hitting Black loses far more gammons than White, so taking gammons out of the picture moves the hitting play to the top of the list by a small amount.
01-16-2022 , 09:14 PM
I truly hate hitting loose in my home board in early game scenarios. It creates many gammon losses. If my play of 15/8 was a .09 blunder, I would still prefer it. A few months ago, I abandoned the bot approved strategy of early game loose home board hits. I am winning more since refusing to hit loose in early game scenarios. I really believe that some players should avoid the difficult scenarios created by early loose home board hits. It is frequently the best play. But I don't play the subsequent positions well. Rarely, I prefer to ignore the Bot.
01-17-2022 , 03:37 PM
A somewhat better solution is to learn to play the resulting positions well. Hitting loose in the home board isn't necessarily a game winner, it's just usually better than a passive play.

In this position (in a money game) the loose hit is a mistake because you've escaped a checker (which is worth a lot) and your opponent has already made his 5-point (which is a counter-indicator for hitting loose.) But make no mistake, hitting loose on the 5-point or 4-point is a usually routine and strong play. If you avoid those plays you'll be giving a lot away.