I thought 15/8 was very clear here (small race lead + one back checker escaped + opponent has better board => play safe when you can), so I did my own XG rollout (same settings as yours) and got 15/8 better by .04. Any chance you rolled out a slightly different position?
I truly hate hitting loose in my home board in early game scenarios. It creates many gammon losses. If my play of 15/8 was a .09 blunder, I would still prefer it. A few months ago, I abandoned the bot approved strategy of early game loose home board hits. I am winning more since refusing to hit loose in early game scenarios. I really believe that some players should avoid the difficult scenarios created by early loose home board hits. It is frequently the best play. But I don't play the subsequent positions well. Rarely, I prefer to ignore the Bot.
A somewhat better solution is to learn to play the resulting positions well. Hitting loose in the home board isn't necessarily a game winner, it's just usually better than a passive play.
In this position (in a money game) the loose hit is a mistake because you've escaped a checker (which is worth a lot) and your opponent has already made his 5-point (which is a counter-indicator for hitting loose.) But make no mistake, hitting loose on the 5-point or 4-point is a usually routine and strong play. If you avoid those plays you'll be giving a lot away.