I really appreciate the discussion.
I obviously played Bar/20 and it seemed clear to me as I didn't want to leave 3 blots. I didn't spend as much time on the play as I should have, but even if I had I doubt I find the right play here.
Turns out, it's such a large error match score is almost irrelevant.
- Match Score 0-2
- B/24 20/16* (50.6 15.7) opponent (49.4 17.5)
- B/20 - -0.293!!! (43.77 5.47) opponent (56.2 5.7)
- Unlimited game
The equities do change based on match score, but after looking at a number of different scores the only time the play switches is if we are winning the match 4-0 and then XG prefers the "safe" play B/20.
I am not sure how I can assimilate this into my game as it seems so complex, but I guess the main thing is to slow down and count shots and break it down like Robertie did. But over the board that could take me way too long.
Thanks again everyone!