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04-02-2014 , 02:42 PM
#1
Ender1204
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centurion
Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 177


White doubles to 4. Cash game. What are the mathematics and reasoning behind red's decision to take or drop? Thanks.

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04-02-2014 , 04:29 PM
#2
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TomCowley
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 5,649
Assuming both have 5 pips left to bear off, if red gets on roll he always wins (white drops the offered 8-cube). So red wins if white rolls any 1 and loses to everything else, so if he takes the cube he loses 4 25/36 and wins 4 11/36, for an equity of -1.56 points. If he drops he loses 2 100% of the time for -2. So taking is correct by a good bit here.
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04-02-2014 , 06:32 PM
#3
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Taper_Mike
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adept
Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,030


Mike
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04-03-2014 , 05:00 AM
#4
colin20g
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enthusiast
Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 88
White doesn't bear off both checkers if and only if he rolls an ace, so he has 25/36 odds to win immediately. If he misses, red redoubles and it is pass (more than 27/36 winning rolls for red in that case)
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