White has two checkers on the bar.

Should white double?

Curious to hear how you would think through this. Thanks!

How about White weren't on the bar but in the outfield already instead. Black would certainly have over 10% with that race lead and White's front spares so undiversified. Let's say 15%.

Starting from there, is it better for White or not to be on the bar with 2 guys but able to shoot at the 2nd Black's blot? Certainly much worse for White. Even if he hits, Black will be much over 10%, still. He will be able to make the anchor frequently. Let's say it's still close to 15%. If White misses, well, that must be like 35-40% or even more for Black. He's got like 2-3 rolls to try to escape and even if he doesn't before White enters, he still has many chances to escape before White attacks AND doesn't get return hit AND makes the 6-prime.

As Black, if we take 15% on White's misses (about 1/3 of times) and 40% on White's dances (about 2/3 of times), that gives us over 30% wins right there. Many of them being gammons. That seems too much for White to even initial double let alone redouble here.

No redouble, easy take.