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Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie. Discussion of anything related to backgammon: strategy, problems, books, clubs, and tournaments.

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Old 09-27-2017, 04:43 AM   #1
PillowFighter
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Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 97
Cube action mystery

Hi!

The other day I ran into this odd situation:



I don't have the race and I don't have any attack so what do I have?

What if the cube is in the middle?

What if the score is 0-0?

Best regards,
TP
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Old 09-27-2017, 08:57 AM   #2
Robertie
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 1,615
Re: Cube action mystery

The short answer is that you have a lot to gain and little to lose by doubling. Now for the longer answer.

You're trailing 0-2 to 5 and you own a 2-cube. If you don't double and lose this game, you'll trail 0-4 to 5 Crawford. You have to win 3 games in a row to win the match if no game is a gammon. Three in a row is 12.5%. Toss in the odd chance of a gammon and we'll take that up to roughly 15%.

So if you double and then lose, you'll have cost yourself 15% MWC (match winning chances). That's your risk from doubling.

Now what's your upside from doubling? If you double and win, you'll be leading 4-2 to 5 Crawford. Your opponent now must win two in a row. so you're a 75% favorite. If you don't double and win, you're 50%. So your gain from doubling is 25%.

So doubling means you're risking 15% to gain 25%. You can do that as an underdog. Roughly you need to be 15/40 = about 40% to double. Looking at the position it's clear you're some kind of favorite, so double.
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Old 09-27-2017, 06:54 PM   #3
RolldUpTrips
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Join Date: Oct 2006
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Re: Cube action mystery

I'll add that you do have a sort of attack. You will likely close the 2 and maybe even improve your distribution this turn. He will be forced off the anchor with any 6, and then you can pounce.
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Old 10-02-2017, 12:40 PM   #4
PillowFighter
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Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 97
Re: Cube action mystery

Hi!

Thanks for your reply!

Yes an MWC calculation is needed here to come up with the right cube action here.

At 0-0 it was a no double and with centered cube it was also a no double.

Best regards,
TP

PS. I noticed a couple of BG studio related postings went missing so perhaps this forum has had enough of those postings for some time...
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