Here is the position, with the cube in the centre.
I chose not to hit, reasoning that White has a huge number of return shots, and even if he misses my position is still not so great.
However this turned out to be a huge blunder according to gnu:
However the equity calculations seem strange to me. If I calculate from the hitting play my equity should be .433 - .567 + .168 - .267 = -.233
And the not hitting play should be .349 - .651 +.056 - .110 = -.356. So still a bad move but not a 22% blunder.
I'm thinking it has something to do with being able to pass the double after a lot of White's hitting sequences and being forced to take the double in the 7-point holding game if I don't hit. Is this right?