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Can Anyone Explain This Please? Can Anyone Explain This Please?

11-18-2021 , 01:54 PM
Hi, can someone explain why I got an error and why the suggested move is so much better that the move I made?

http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5701/8Obi2L.jpg
Can Anyone Explain This Please? Quote
11-18-2021 , 05:52 PM
It's the same amount of blot numbers next turn for both plays. As an exercise, you may want to go through the numbers and count them up for each play if you haven't done that yet.

It might be slightly safer long term to do your play because the gap after 7/6 7/2 makes it so there are fewer numbers to clear the 8 point safely. That's typically why you want to "clear from the rear." But the long term safety difference is unclear because after your play, you pay the blot numbers on your next roll, but say you roll something decent like a 5-1, you still might have problems clearing the 7 point on the roll after that.

But even if your play is slightly safer, it could still be wrong because it loses more straight races (when neither player gets hit) than the other play. You want the 2 crossovers and the 2 point gap filled in. Having a spare on the 6 could prove useful as well. Also you want to block the bigger set (33 vs 22). These factors may not seem like a big deal, but we're talking about a tiny difference in overall safety, so they can swing the decision. There's only a 1.4% difference in wins, the plays are a bit closer than the Galaxy analysis shows according to a rollout.
Can Anyone Explain This Please? Quote
11-19-2021 , 12:00 PM
Thanks for this. I can now also see that if there are no hits you can save a roll in bearing off with the suggested move in case he rolls a few big doubles and it comes to a race. I counted nine bad rolls which left a blot for both of the plays. I avoided being hit and went on to win, but no points were awarded as that "error" made the tiny difference in the error rate.
Can Anyone Explain This Please? Quote
11-22-2021 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by _Z_
It's the same amount of blot numbers next turn for both plays. As an exercise, you may want to go through the numbers and count them up for each play if you haven't done that yet.

It might be slightly safer long term to do your play because the gap after 7/6 7/2 makes it so there are fewer numbers to clear the 8 point safely. That's typically why you want to "clear from the rear." But the long term safety difference is unclear because after your play, you pay the blot numbers on your next roll, but say you roll something decent like a 5-1, you still might have problems clearing the 7 point on the roll after that.

But even if your play is slightly safer, it could still be wrong because it loses more straight races (when neither player gets hit) than the other play. You want the 2 crossovers and the 2 point gap filled in. Having a spare on the 6 could prove useful as well. Also you want to block the bigger set (33 vs 22). These factors may not seem like a big deal, but we're talking about a tiny difference in overall safety, so they can swing the decision. There's only a 1.4% difference in wins, the plays are a bit closer than the Galaxy analysis shows according to a rollout.
I think you hit on a key feature when you point that OPs play leaves blots sooner than the correct play. Long term safety is important, but if you can wait a couple of rolls to leave a potential blot, white either will be forced off his anchor, in which case you might be able to limit the damage by hitting (for example leaving a blot on the 8pt while hitting the lone checker and moving it to a made inner point) or will be forced to break his board, which obviously would make being hit far less damaging. In a pay now vs pay later, it’s always better to pay later if your opponent’s position will worsen after a few rolls.
Can Anyone Explain This Please? Quote
11-23-2021 , 08:04 AM
Another thought is....he is too far behind to run, so you are building and distributing and making it easier for yourself to come home. Also, if he does run with a big double you will appreciate that better distribution.
Can Anyone Explain This Please? Quote

      
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