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bearoff against a checker on the bar

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01-03-2020 , 12:30 AM

grape5

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 39

White - Pips 99 (+41), Match -1 -1

Black - Pips 58 (-41), Match -1 -1
Black to Play 6-2
Created with Diagram Builder

Options are:
(a) 8/2 4/2 which leaves 10 immediate shots: 66 65 64 63 62 55
(b) 8/off which leaves 6 immediate shots: 66 65 62 55

Yet (a) wins 2% more than (b) in an XG rollout. How do we explain this?

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01-03-2020 , 01:53 AM

bleep69

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 483

I think the diagram is off, there are no shots left with either option.

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01-03-2020 , 02:03 AM

grape5

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 39

Quote:

Originally Posted by bleep69

I think the diagram is off, there are no shots left with either option.

I don't mean shots left after this play. I meant the rolls that leave shots on your next roll.

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01-03-2020 , 02:06 AM

bleep69

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 483

Too early for me!

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01-03-2020 , 02:52 AM

_Z_

adept

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 734

The open 2 point is a long term liability. In other words, if you survive the next sequence, you’ll typically be a lot safer having played 8/2 4/2.

When the 2 point is open like this it’s sometimes called a “phantom deuce point game”. It doesn’t generate as many shots as if White owned the 2 point, but it will still generate some.

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