Quote:
Originally Posted by 7NTXX
What possible advantage is there to leaving a blot? Gammon chances are minimal and you're already a big favorite.
Here are some possible advantages to hitting and leaving a blot:
1) You win some gammons. If you play safe with 5/1, your gammon chances are nearly zero. If you hit with 5/2 4/3*, Black will dance 70% of the time and you'll win a few gammons. Not a huge number, but probably in the 10% range. That matters.
2) When he dances, you gain enormously in the race. If you play safe he'll trail by 15 pips, but he's on roll and owns the cube. His winning chances are far from trivial. When you hit and he fans (again, 70% of the time) his winning chances do drop to nearly zero.
3) The safe play isn't safe. If you play 5/1 instead, you leave a blot next turn with 6-5, 5-5, 5-3, and 6-1. (7 shots, almost 20% of the time.) Many other rolls (5-4, 5-2, 4-1, 3-1, 2-1 at least) force you to break your board while staying on the 8-point. You lose ground in the race while you're breaking your board.
4) Getting hit isn't a loss for you. You come in 30% of the time on the first roll and the game goes on. You win a few of those.
What you're doing here is conflating 'being a favorite' with 'always winning' and 'getting hit' with 'always losing'. It's a common problem and it leads players to making apparently safe plays when a little risk could pay off big. Here's the cure: Take this position and play it out by hand 50 times each way. Sure it will take an evening, but you'll learn a lot about how much play is left in the position.