Quote:
Originally Posted by ibebobo
However.....The doubles were MORE than expected, not less. Which is what I expressed. I stand by my statement. I would never play a tournament (for money) or pay for this site unless they change the dice program. Let me reiterate that this is my opinion only. People can make up their own minds
I need to correct you and clarify what I said. No, the doubles were not more than expected. The doubles were .03 percent more than the expected value. There is a difference and I apologize for not being more clear about it when I wrote earlier. I should have been more careful in my statements.
The number frequency of doubles cannot be an opinion. Your opinion can be that the dice aren't fair. Your opinion can be that doubles show up at inopportune times for you (although, I don't know why the programming would pick you out to be unfair to). Your opinion can even be that the dice are rigged and not random. However, the frequency that doubles are rolled is a fact and whether or not there is "way more" than what would occur with random rolls is also a statistical fact. It's not an opinion.
The fact is, the number of doubles rolled were well within the expected parameters and statistically they are definitely what you would expect to encounter with random rolls. When something has an expected value, that does not mean you expect it to be exactly that value (I should have been more clear about that in my previous post). It means that, over time, you expect the average to approach that value. Being within .03 percent of the expected value means, statistically, the dice are not rolling doubles more than they should...not even close and certainly not at a rate that can be accurately perceived.
Let me put it another way. If you flipped a coin 100 times, the expected value for the number of heads flipped would be 50. That is the most likely occurrence, but it still only happens 7.96 percent of the times that you flip a coin 100 times. Almost as likely, you'll get heads 49 times (7.8 percent of the time) or 51 times (7.8 percent of the time). If you flipped a coin 100 times and it was heads 51 times (2 percent more than the expected value), would you say the coin flipping isn't random? Of course not, you'd say that it was definitely within the normal distribution. So, why would you say that .03 percent is more than expected? You wouldn't...the fact is, it's perfectly normal and not more than expected...and certainly not anything anybody could consider "way more than random".
Sorry I was not more clear the first time. Statistically, the dice are rolling the number of doubles that it should. It's pretty clear.