Quote:
Originally Posted by networth
Very cool. I would bet on the cube assuming Phil is 3 pr worse than Mochy. I would think with computers one or both of them no exactly what the cube is worth.
Yes, this should be fun. It is being held in Las Vegas, so there are lots of ways to bet on it. Supposedly Mochy and Phil have a significant per-point wager between themselves. I don't know what Mochy has done, but Phil says it is a large enough bet that he brought in backers.
In the second link above, there is a lot of discussion about who is favored. The general consensus is that Phil might have a small edge.
Phil writes, “I have played hundreds of money games that I have either played against XG or have put into XG, and I play around 5 PR.” Assuming that is correct, then Mochy would have to play at 2.0 in order to have a 3.0 PR advantage.
Neil Kazaross determined that, “[In XGR++ evaluations,] the value of starting [a game] owning the cube [at 2] is shown to be a bit less than 3/8 of a point.”
Rick Janowski calculated the break-even point in two posts that can be found
here and
here. He concluded, “It now looks to me like Mochy needs a PR edge of about 3.3 to break even.”
Having stated that he averages around 5.0,
Phil has been trying to reduce expectations by saying, “My guess is I will play about 5 or 6 PR worse than Mochy.” That way, if Phil turns in, say, a 7.0 or 8.0, he can claim that he did better than expected. He is further buttressed against the embarrassment of playing in double digits. It is a fair warning to those who have backed him!
Mike