Quote:
Originally Posted by phil in kc
I can see what you're saying, Aaron, but I'm still skeptical. White is pretty flat, and only has three checkers to distribute. Given my play, if he hits my blot, I could get stuck behind the 4-ptrime and crash my board, but I'm a favorite to get out. If he can't hit my blot (more likely), then he's got to move his checkers, and flat as he is he'll have to break a point or move the one free checker he has to shoot at me in the outfield without leaving a blot of his own.
There's a theme of connectedness here. There might even be some examples in Modern backgammon that look like this.
If white misses, he's going to spend the next roll cleaning up that blot. And then what happens for you? You've got to run YOUR blot to safety (if you can). Then his next roll will be to break his back anchor to maximize his shots if you roll any 6 (or maybe even a 5). The only way you get out of it is to roll 55/66. Otherwise, you're going to have an awful time getting your back checkers home. In other words, you're moving towards giving up the game and simply playing not to get gammoned.
Also, the match score matters. I should have said this at the beginning, but because I have never played a cash game, it's basically intuitive for me to look at the score and incorporate that into my thinking. White doesn't want to cube because he's 3-away and you're 'big'-away and there's contact (Stick's law?). He has little to gain by doubling but stands to lose a lot by a potential recube, so that cube is probably just going to sit on the bar. For money (as mute points out), this could well be the right play BECAUSE you might face a cube which leads to a costly gammon. It would be interesting to look at this position at DMP (1-away/1-away). Since losing a gammon in that situation is no worse than losing a regular game, it might once again swing back to GNU's running play. After all, you'll be ahead in the race, so you should be looking to race.
Also, white's play once you jump his prime is to stay back since you've got a decent racing lead. So he's not going to be running in the outfield. Instead, he's going to take the next roll or two to try to fill in his board.
It took a while for me to really appreciate the differences in play at different scores (especially in short games). I'm still learning about this sort of thing.