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Old 01-23-2017, 02:28 AM   #1
ClassicalGuitar23
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Another Interesting Cube Decision

White - Pips 105

Black - Pips 149
White Doubles
Created with www.BGdiagram.com
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Old 01-23-2017, 06:26 PM   #2
Karol Szczerek
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Re: Another Interesting Cube Decision

The take seems clear to me. White has to cover (ca. 50% chance) and then roll 3 single numbers to escape - ALL of this with almost no timing left. He won't manage to do it before crunching often enough to let us comfortably take. All of his doubles except maybe 11 are small to big anti-jokers, too.

He's got many gammons for sure, say 2/3 of wins, but I wouldn't give him more than 60% wins here. Probably between 55 and 60%. This gives me an eq of 0.7 - 0.8 after take.

The double decision is what I'd hesitate with here. I can't see many market losers. 63, 65, maybe 11, 13 and 15. Only 9. Some anti-jokers (44, 55). Seems very thin. On the other hand, the volatility and gammons are quite high, so I think I'd double this, but I wouldn't say it's a big double for sure.
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Old 01-24-2017, 05:41 AM   #3
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Re: Another Interesting Cube Decision

This was an interesting position for me. I agree that blacks timing is quite poor, however I see his gammon percentage as quite high. I thought it was a pretty close take initially but was uncertain. It is a pretty clear double and an easy take after a rollout. Initial analysis on XG++ showed bare take clear extremely clear double.
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Old 01-24-2017, 05:59 PM   #4
Karol Szczerek
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Re: Another Interesting Cube Decision

Could you share the RO results? I think not only me would like to see the values.
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Old 01-25-2017, 10:09 AM   #5
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Re: Another Interesting Cube Decision

FWIW, I did an XG rollout (2592 trials) and got easy take (not surprising) and small no double (a little surprising). The XGR+ evaluation had been small double, so the rollout did a reversal there.
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Old 01-25-2017, 10:25 PM   #6
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Re: Another Interesting Cube Decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robertie View Post
FWIW, I did an XG rollout (2592 trials) and got easy take (not surprising) and small no double (a little surprising). The XGR+ evaluation had been small double, so the rollout did a reversal there.
Was the ND with Jacoby? Activating gammons SEEMS like a must in this position
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Old 01-26-2017, 05:52 AM   #7
ClassicalGuitar23
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Re: Another Interesting Cube Decision

hmm, i did the 1296 rollout and got something like .303 take and .85 double
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Old 01-26-2017, 10:12 AM   #8
Robertie
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Re: Another Interesting Cube Decision

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Originally Posted by RolldUpTrips View Post
Was the ND with Jacoby? Activating gammons SEEMS like a must in this position
I did a money game rollout with the cube on White's side. It would be almost impossible for this position to arise in a money game without the cube having been turned.
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Old 01-28-2017, 05:49 AM   #9
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Re: Another Interesting Cube Decision

The computer is white and it was a money game.
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