Hi. I play money game rules versus the shareware version of Jellyfish (Jacoby Rule and Beavers allowed).

If Jellyfish beavers me do I always have to drop or do I ever have a take based on the position?

I am aware of the Kauder Paradox and only wish to address situations where I incorrectly double and Jellyfish beavers me.

Thanks in advance.

You never have to drop the beaver. In fact, you almost always have a take.

You double from 1 to 2. Jellyfish beavers from 2 to 4. You can drop the beaver and lose 2 points, or play on for 4 points. You originally thought you had a big enough edge to double, and now you're wondering if you are 25% to win, knowing that you are on roll. Dropping the beaver should hardly ever be right.

Thanks for your reply.

I thought it may be position dependent but as you have clearly pointed out if I thought I was good enough to double then how can I drop the beaver whilst on roll?

Good news: Jellyfish has only beavered me twice in the last 310 games. So I am getting better!

I've only once seen a situation in live play where dropping a beaver was correct.

I was the captain in a chouette in the wee hours, when many of the players had had a tad too much to drink. The box owned a 4-cube and had 7 men left on his 1-point. We had 6 men left on our 1- and 2-points.

The box miscounted his checkers and decided he had 6 men left and so did we, so he doubled all four of his cubes to 8.

I beavered to 16 and two of my teammates went along with me. The fourth only took, "not wanting the stakes to get out of hand".

The box's proper play was to drop the beavers at the 8-level. He loses whenever he doesn't throw a double (it's then a 3-roll position and we reship) and he loses about 25% of the time when he does roll a double (we then have 6 checkers against 4 and two shots to roll a double of our own).

The finish was nothing special -- he rolled a non-double, we all redoubled, three of us to 32 and one to 16, he took all cubes and lost 112 points.

I have seen a lot more than this, but I haven't seen anyone (correctly or incorrectly) drop a beaver yet.

It is correct to drop more often than you would think. The normal "3-1 odds" isn't right because opp will probably get recubed next roll also (or the roll after, or the roll after, whatever).

Yes, you would think that cube should be coming back a very high % of the time in which case 37.5% is a better benchmark then 25% (since you will usually be playing for 4 times the stakes you forfeit when you pass).

It would still require you to make a pretty big mistake to believe that you are enough of a fave to double and actually be a decent size dog.

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