If we run and are missed, we are still not gin. We still need to secure the blot next roll. We will sometimes need to leave it exposed, and if we do, we might want to attack, too, given the avalanche of builders we can release upon the miserable White's blot. Even if we secure, we are not gin in the race. White will be probably around 25% GWC anyway, so she can take.

Instead of 24/15 we have also 24/21 13/7 to consider, but I don't see much advantage over running, so I'd just put it into the same basket.

How about the attack? We have very strong frontal position, things can go pretty great pretty fast. For example, if White fails to enter, we probably have a cash already. If she enters but misses, she will probably expose another blot somewhere. This may be an important weakness when we continue the attack. Even if we are hit, we have many return shots and still a stronger position.

13/4* for me.

As I look at all these problems that 'deh' is posting, I think I can make a useful generalization.

In all these positions, you seem to be asking yourself one question: "If my opponent rolls his best, how badly off am I?" The answer to this question always leads you to the play which is safest this turn.

But there's another big question to be asked and answered about each position: "How strong am I if he rolls a poor number?" If you start thinking about the answer to that question when you have a non-obvious move and factor it into your decision-making, your play will start to improve dramatically.

It's kind of like playing your poker hand assuming that your opponent will suck out on you. Sure I have the 2nd nuts, but he might hit that 1 card he needs, so I better bet small. Forget about the other 17 hands I crush when he misses.