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late 4-point holding game cube action late 4-point holding game cube action
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01-07-2018 , 03:27 AM
#1
grape5
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newbie
Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 39
This position arose in a match against XG, and the cube action surprised me. Eventually I figured it out but I thought it was interesting so I'm putting it up here.

White - Pips 47. Match Score 4/7

Black - Pips 88. Match Score 0/7
Black on roll. Cube action?
Created with www.BGdiagram.com

Spoiler:

The correct cube action is double/take.

Usually a single direct shot in a holding game isn't good enough for a double, so I was surprised when XG said I missed this double.

But then I figured out why: not only do I have a shot now, but if I miss, I'll have another shot on the next roll if White's next roll has 4,5, or 6 on both dice (9 numbers). Combined with the match score (trailing 0-4 with cube on 2), that is apparently good enough to double, according to XG.

XG's "Dice Distributions" -> "2nd rolled" feature made it easy to see these upcoming bad rolls for the opponent.
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01-07-2018 , 04:38 AM
#2
RolldUpTrips
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old hand
Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,334
If he beats you he's going to be 1aC-7a so your MWC is really low (I don't know exact number). Basically, you have very little to lose by risking losing the match (only your 7a-C MWC) and a ton to gain by trying to get to 4-4 in a super high-volatility position
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01-08-2018 , 03:30 PM
#3
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_Z_
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adept
Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 720
By doubling, you're putting two more points at stake, but White can only use one of them and you can use both of them. So it's like you are getting 2 to 1 odds. Normally you are getting 1 to 1 odds, so your doubling window opens at 50%, here it's like your doubling window opens at 33%.

That's an over-simplification because points are worth different amounts to each player (in terms of match winning chances), but that's the basic idea behind doubling as an underdog in matches.
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