Open Side Menu Go to the Top
FAQ Today's Posts Search Twitter Discord
Register
6-1, end game 6-1, end game
Post Reply Subscribe
...
05-19-2018 , 04:30 PM
#1
deh
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By deh Find Threads By deh
journeyman
Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 202


White - Pips 35 (-8)

Black - Pips 43 (+8)
Black to Play 6-1
Created with Diagram Builder


Any way to 'calculate' the right play here?

6-1, end game Quote
05-23-2018 , 09:53 PM
#2
jjpregler
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By jjpregler Find Threads By jjpregler
old hand
Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974
You trail by 3 crossovers. Bill Robertie wrote in articles previously, that trailing by 3 crossovers is the break even point to take 2 off here.

When you trail by 2 crossovers or less, play safe. When you trail by 4 or more crossovers, play aggressively and take 2 off.

When you trail by exactly 3, both plays have roughly the same equity. And while it is not always the "correct" answer in XG, I usually decide based on number of checkers off. Does taking an extra checker save me a full roll? Here no, so I would probably take 1 off, but I won't be surprised if XG says that taking 2 off is slightly ahead.
6-1, end game Quote
05-23-2018 , 10:33 PM
#3
deh
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By deh Find Threads By deh
journeyman
Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjpregler
You trail by 3 crossovers. Bill Robertie wrote in articles previously, that trailing by 3 crossovers is the break even point to take 2 off here.

When you trail by 2 crossovers or less, play safe. When you trail by 4 or more crossovers, play aggressively and take 2 off.

When you trail by exactly 3, both plays have roughly the same equity. And while it is not always the "correct" answer in XG, I usually decide based on number of checkers off. Does taking an extra checker save me a full roll? Here no, so I would probably take 1 off, but I won't be surprised if XG says that taking 2 off is slightly ahead.
Good rule!
taking 2 off is .100 error here.
6-1, end game Quote
05-24-2018 , 09:29 AM
#4
Robertie
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By Robertie Find Threads By Robertie
old hand
Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954
I'm not sure how you got your answer, but I just did a rollout on XG and got 6/off 1/off as better than 6/off 6/1 by .023. That's close, as my little formula would suggest. but two men off is clearly better.
6-1, end game Quote
05-24-2018 , 11:19 AM
#5
jjpregler
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By jjpregler Find Threads By jjpregler
old hand
Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robertie
I'm not sure how you got your answer, but I just did a rollout on XG and got 6/off 1/off as better than 6/off 6/1 by .023. That's close, as my little formula would suggest. but two men off is clearly better.
How do decide on the 3 behind break even point OTB with your rule?
6-1, end game Quote
05-24-2018 , 02:02 PM
#6
Robertie
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By Robertie Find Threads By Robertie
old hand
Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjpregler
How do decide on the 3 behind break even point OTB with your rule?
Could you rephrase the question? Three behind is the break-even point.
6-1, end game Quote
05-24-2018 , 02:23 PM
#7
jjpregler
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By jjpregler Find Threads By jjpregler
old hand
Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974
When you are 3 cross overs behind, you are at the break even point between playing safe and playing bold and taking 2 off.

When you are playing over the board, and you come across a position such as this, when you are at the 3 behind break even point, what factors do you consider when choosing to either play safe or take 2 off? The number of checkers off? The point being opened? and etc.
6-1, end game Quote
05-24-2018 , 02:38 PM
#8
Robertie
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By Robertie Find Threads By Robertie
old hand
Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954
Since you're at the break-even point, you can't make a serious mistake no matter what you do. I'd probably just default to taking two off. That's surely the play that will impress spectators the most!
6-1, end game Quote
05-24-2018 , 04:42 PM
#9
deh
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By deh Find Threads By deh
journeyman
Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robertie
I'm not sure how you got your answer, but I just did a rollout on XG and got 6/off 1/off as better than 6/off 6/1 by .023. That's close, as my little formula would suggest. but two men off is clearly better.
Sorry, that was me working on a variant of the position.

The one above is:

XGID=aCBBBBB----------------e--:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10



1. Rollout¹ 6/Off 1/Off eq:+0.128
Player: 46.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 53.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.124..+0.132) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4.0 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/Off eq:+0.104 (-0.023)
Player: 47.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 52.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.100..+0.109) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3.1 seconds
6-1, end game Quote
Post Reply Subscribe
...
      
Feedback is used for internal purposes. LEARN MORE
Contact Us Privacy Statement TOS
Top
Powered by:  Hand2Note
Copyright ©2008-2022, Hand2Note Interactive LTD
m