I'm moving the black piece on 15 to 6. You are vulnerable to a 5 and 1 roll. All your moves suck, but this seems less bad than the other moves. Breaking up the pieces on 18 is just asking for trouble. That leaves moving to 12 and 10, 16 to 7, and 15 to 6. Having a piece on 12 sucks because any combo of 7, 5, or 1 leads to a capture. 16 to 7 is vulnerable to 4 and 2. I'd rather be vulnerable to 5 and 1 than 4 and 2.

You've got three plays here: 15/6, 16/7, and 15/10 16/12. All leave two blots and approximately the same number of shots. In positions where the only issue is where to leave the blots, you usually want to ask yourself two questions:

1) If I don't get hit, where would I like my blots to be?

2) If I do get hit, where would I like my opponent's blots to be?

The answer to (1) is 15/10 16/12. If you get missed here, your blots are connected and closer to your home board, as well as attacking your opponent's blot.

The answer to (2) is the same. If your opponent hits you, you'd rather his checkers weren't also bearing on his inner board, helping him build points. Your worst play is actually 15/6, since if he then hits the blot on your 16-point he's also created a new cover number for his blot on his 3-point.

Thank you!

1. XG Roller+ 16/12 15/10 eq:-0.426
Player: 41.94% (G:10.08% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 58.06% (G:19.37% B:0.67%)

2. XG Roller+ 16/7 eq:-0.518 (-0.091)
Player: 39.32% (G:8.35% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 60.68% (G:20.42% B:0.64%)

3. XG Roller+ 15/6 eq:-0.561 (-0.135)
Player: 38.14% (G:7.52% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 61.86% (G:21.94% B:0.79%)


Probably counting opponent's rolls that are especially bad for us is also relevant:

play 1: 25 shots, bad: 51 21 52 55 11 = 8 bad rolls
play 2: 24 shots, bad: 22 11 52 42 44 45 = 9 bad rolls
play 3: 22 shots, bad: 52 55 51 65 21 11 = 10 bad rolls

Oops, I guess on a positive note I was able to determine the best 3 moves. Chose the worst of the 3 though.

So did I!