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Old 04-04-2018, 01:38 PM   #1
deh
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 157
5-3, third roll

White - Pips 159 (-2)

Black - Pips 161 (+2)
Black to Play 5-3
Created with Diagram Builder

Out of 3 candidates, which one do you choose and why?



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Old 04-05-2018, 12:01 AM   #2
RolldUpTrips
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 776
Re: 5-3, third roll

The position is obviously rather equal, but our closer-together points means that we should have an easier time making a blocking position and shoudl try to transition the game in that direction. Additionally, the first feature of this position that sticks out to me as ugly is our undeveloped midpoint. For those reasons, I'm bringing two guys down. My second choice is to make the 3 and third choice is the split.
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Old 04-05-2018, 12:23 AM   #3
deh
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Join Date: Mar 2011
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Re: 5-3, third roll

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolldUpTrips View Post
The position is obviously rather equal, but our closer-together points means that we should have an easier time making a blocking position and shoudl try to transition the game in that direction. Additionally, the first feature of this position that sticks out to me as ugly is our undeveloped midpoint. For those reasons, I'm bringing two guys down. My second choice is to make the 3 and third choice is the split.
Thank you, that was my thinking when I played two down. Unfortunately XG prefers splitting. XG also prefers splitting if the opponent's position is even more overrun and is a real attacking position. This is something I cannot explain.
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Old 04-05-2018, 09:30 AM   #4
Robertie
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 1,673
Re: 5-3, third roll

Try this. Black has three liabilities in this position:

(1) His back men haven't moved yet. (Big problem)

(2) His midpoint is stacked. (Medium problem)

(3) His 8-point is stripped. (Small problem)

Playing 24/21 13/8 works on all three problems very well.

Making the 3-point creates an important asset (better board) but all Black's liabilities have gotten worse. The back checkers still haven't moved, and White will probably be bringing builders down next turn, making splitting the back men much more dangerous. His midpoint is still stacked. And the stripped 8-point has turn into a blot on the 8-point.

Black would have to be making a really great point to compensate for all this, and the 3-point isn't that strong. The 5-point would probably be good enough, but that's not an option here.
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Old 04-05-2018, 03:47 PM   #5
deh
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Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 157
Re: 5-3, third roll

Thank you, Bill and RolldUp!



1. XG Roller+ 24/21 13/8 eq:+0.171
Player: 54.23% (G:16.48% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 45.77% (G:13.16% B:0.51%)

2. XG Roller+ 8/3 6/3 eq:+0.148 (-0.024)
Player: 53.18% (G:18.41% B:0.89%)
Opponent: 46.82% (G:13.98% B:0.79%)

3. XG Roller+ 13/10 13/8 eq:+0.104 (-0.067)
Player: 52.43% (G:16.88% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 47.57% (G:14.02% B:0.75%)

4. XG Roller+ 24/16 eq:+0.057 (-0.114)
Player: 52.07% (G:14.29% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 47.93% (G:15.07% B:0.57%)
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Old 04-06-2018, 02:19 AM   #6
bleep69
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 464
Re: 5-3, third roll

Can a good rule of thumb in cases like this be that making the point in your home is seldom a poor choice? At least it would prevent greater blunders from being made when you're faced with these calls.
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