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5-3 to play

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02-27-2018 , 02:27 AM

deh

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 202

White - Pips 129 (-29)

Black - Pips 158 (+29)
Black to Play 5-3
Created with Diagram Builder

What is your play and why?

Last edited by deh; 02-27-2018 at 02:36 AM. Reason: Wrong diagram and question.

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02-27-2018 , 05:47 AM

RolldUpTrips

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,334

I'll try 4* and 20 here. My reasoning is that he still has a guy back that you would rather not let escape and there are not a whoel lot of productive 5s on the board. I like 20 with the 3 to establish better connectivity with the 14. If he comes in and hits you there, you'd really really like to have a spare to hit him with and not have to consider breaking the best thing you ahve going for you.

My second choice would be to just build the board and make the 3 point, but that just doesn't look quite right to me.

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02-27-2018 , 06:12 PM

noncarborundum

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 101

I agree with the hit, but I'd play 14-11 in addition. Another builder, a few less rolls for her to hit that checker, plus if hit, keeping the 23 gives a chance to grab a second point in her board, since we are way behind in the race.

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03-01-2018 , 05:54 AM

RolldUpTrips

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,334

Quote:

Originally Posted by noncarborundum

We're down less than 20 pips after the roll(if we hit), so I'm looking to fight this game in the outfield. By adding a spare to the 20, the blot on the 14 is putting pressure on opps stripped points in our outfield since we can always hit back with the spare. I would also prefer to play with one fewer blot and not allow some interesting tempo hits later with us outboarded.

I find this position rather interesting, and I could be very wrong.

Last edited by RolldUpTrips; 03-01-2018 at 05:55 AM. Reason: clarification

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03-01-2018 , 02:56 PM

noncarborundum

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 101

I ran this (again GNU 2-ply) as just a 2-away/2-away (I see Black has cube but didn't see score) and the results were that the passive 14/9, 6/3 holds a .004 advantage over 14/11, 9/4*, and a .009 advantage over 23/20, 14/9 and 9/4*, 6/3.
23/20, 9/4* was next, .011 back.

I changed the score to White 2-away, Black 6-away, and 14/11, 9/4* becomes a big favorite.

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03-01-2018 , 03:58 PM

deh

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 202

1. XG Roller+ 23/20 14/9 eq:-0.187
2. XG Roller+ 14/9 6/3 eq:-0.193 (-0.006)
3. XG Roller+ 23/20 9/4* eq:-0.243 (-0.056)
4. XG Roller+ 14/6 eq:-0.258 (-0.072)
5. XG Roller+ 14/9 8/5 eq:-0.260 (-0.073)

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