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Old 10-11-2017, 09:10 PM   #1
deh
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5-3 to play

White - Pips 121

Black - Pips 117
Black to Play 5-3
Created with www.BGdiagram.com

There are ~3 moderately reasonable plays. Which one is the best?
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Old 10-11-2017, 11:15 PM   #2
e_holle
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Re: 5-3 to play

I really only like two plays, and my choice would depend on my mood, match score, or metagame considerations. 21-13 probably wins more often, but 13-8 13-10 will get you more gammons without a lot of risk. I lean toward the second, but I'm happy with either.
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:59 AM   #3
_Z_
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Re: 5-3 to play

I'm not sure between 21/13 and 13/8 13/10. But the blot on White's ace point and the (somewhat) closeness of the race pushes me to play 13/8 13/10. One thing going on is if Black makes the safer 21/13, he may be incurring some risk later on anyways to attack. That seems to imply it's OK to take some extra risk here.

This is the type of problem that can be easier in a match. It's clear to me that 21/13 wins more, but there are more gammon wins after 13/8 13/10.
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Old 10-12-2017, 04:27 PM   #4
Karol Szczerek
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Re: 5-3 to play

I'd play 21/16 13/10 rather fast. White has a worse board and a blot inside. 13/10 brings down a builder and attacks her outfield blot. After that 13/8 doesn't do all that much. So go with 21/16, as you don't want to forget about your back men during blitz. Spreading so much isn't an issue. White's a bit duplicated (5s enter and cover her ace, 1s enter and hit in the outfield), and she will be still greatly exposed if she tries to enter&hit.
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Old 10-13-2017, 07:31 AM   #5
jjpregler
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Re: 5-3 to play

My first instinct was to run out to the mid-point. You would be up 12 pips in the race and only giving a 5/3 from the bar.

However, I checked this one on XG and Karol's play is correct.
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Old 10-13-2017, 09:30 AM   #6
e_holle
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Re: 5-3 to play

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjpregler View Post
My first instinct was to run out to the mid-point. You would be up 12 pips in the race and only giving a 5/3 from the bar.

However, I checked this one on XG and Karol's play is correct.
I realize it's only the mobile version, but my XGM ranks it 3rd or 4th.
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Old 10-13-2017, 12:12 PM   #7
_Z_
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Re: 5-3 to play

Yeah, XG rollout likes Karol's play by .04 over 13/8 13/10 and by .07 over 20/13.

One thing I didn't appreciate about 21/16 13/10 is that a 5-4 by White doesn't really hit. It should be played B/16.

I don't think it's right to say that 13/8 doesn't do much though. It bring an extra checker in range for the blitz, makes the 8 point, and takes away some hitting numbers from White. It's just that getting the back man going is worth more here.
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