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Old 03-23-2018, 09:34 PM   #1
deh
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 170
5-1, run or stay

White - Pips 25 (-49)

Black - Pips 74 (+49)
Black to Play 5-1
Created with
Diagram Builder




Run or stay, what is your play? (c)



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Old 03-24-2018, 06:23 AM   #2
RolldUpTrips
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 803
Re: 5-1, run or stay

I'm gonna run. Your board is already so screwed up that you're not gonna win when you hit and you're ahead in crossovers to save the gammon so you shouldn't need to hit to save it, either.
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Old 03-24-2018, 09:27 AM   #3
Robertie
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 1,684
Re: 5-1, run or stay

Tricky. This is a position where you're not staying put to win but to save some gammons. White has eight checkers left (4 rolls) so if you stay you force him to play safe on rolls like 6-1, 6-4, 5-1, and 5-4, when he still needs 4 rolls to get off. You also get shots on 6-2 and 5-2 which are gammon-savers if you hit. Since 13/7 doesn't waste any outfield pips on this roll, that's probably a better play.
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Old 03-24-2018, 09:30 AM   #4
Robertie
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Re: 5-1, run or stay

Here's an interesting variation to drive home the point: Black plays 13/7 and White then rolls 4-1. What's his play?
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Old 03-24-2018, 01:11 PM   #5
deh
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 170
Re: 5-1, run or stay

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robertie View Post
Here's an interesting variation to drive home the point: Black plays 13/7 and White then rolls 4-1. What's his play?

White - Pips 25 (-43)

Black - Pips 68 (+43)
White to Play 4-1
Created with Diagram Builder


In the light of your explanations for the previous position, the correct play might be to bear off two checkers. Risking not to get 1/3+ of gammons due to the immediate and consecutive hits in order to get some more racing gammons. Not sure how to estimate the total though.
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Old 03-26-2018, 04:46 PM   #6
Karol Szczerek
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Poland
Posts: 91
Re: 5-1, run or stay

Yeah it looks like bearing off 2 is better. White can't win many "racing" gammons after the safe play. After the bold play her gammons should shoot quite high with 6 vs 6 crossovers. Even if she's hit, she will still win a few. All that with almost no risk as Black's board doesn't pose a threat to White's winning chances.
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