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Old 03-17-2018, 02:27 AM   #1
deh
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 198
5-1 to play

White - Pips 123 (-1)

Black - Pips 124 (+1)
Black to Play 5-1
Created with Diagram Builder



What is your play and why?



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Old 03-17-2018, 10:43 AM   #2
Robertie
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Posts: 1,708
Re: 5-1 to play

How about 18/13 3/2*? Everything else leaves plenty of blots as well; this play at least allows White to dance.
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Old 03-17-2018, 03:02 PM   #3
deh
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Re: 5-1 to play

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robertie View Post
How about 18/13 3/2*? Everything else leaves plenty of blots as well; this play at least allows White to dance.
Sounds reasonable, I cannot estimate what is best - leave 20 shots and 2 blots with possibility to fix the board with 1s OR (18/13 and 4/3 for example) leave 11 shots and 1 blot with some less direct possibilities to fix the board.

Last edited by deh; 03-17-2018 at 03:07 PM.
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Old 03-17-2018, 05:04 PM   #4
Robertie
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Re: 5-1 to play

Both plays have plenty of risk. My plays takes risks but puts him on the bar. Your play takes risks but leaves him with his whole roll to play. Logically, that must be worse.
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Old 03-17-2018, 06:19 PM   #5
deh
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Re: 5-1 to play

1. XG Roller+ 18/13 3/2* eq:-0.315
Player: 44.34% (G:15.19% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 55.66% (G:12.48% B:0.43%)

2. XG Roller+ 18/13 5/4 eq:-0.427 (-0.112)
Player: 40.83% (G:8.48% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 59.17% (G:9.41% B:0.29%)

3. XG Roller+ 13/8 3/2* eq:-0.431 (-0.116)
Player: 42.50% (G:17.92% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 57.50% (G:28.52% B:2.09%)

4. XG Roller+ 18/13 4/3 eq:-0.439 (-0.124)
Player: 40.68% (G:8.27% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 59.32% (G:9.96% B:0.33%)

5. XG Roller+ 18/13 6/5 eq:-0.455 (-0.140)
Player: 40.10% (G:8.22% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 59.90% (G:9.89% B:0.32%)
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