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Old 02-12-2018, 08:29 PM   #1
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 88
5-1 to play

White - Pips 109 (-23)

Black - Pips 132 (+23)
Black to Play 5-1
Created with Diagram Builder

Minimize the number of blots or maximize covers? (And why?)

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Old 02-13-2018, 03:38 AM   #2
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 713
Re: 5-1 to play

I'm playing 13/7. It give you 5s, 6s, and 44 to make a 5-prime. Because your opponent has the cube, your residual equity as he tries to come home if things go poorly is much less powerful because you will get doubled out of a fair bit of equity pretty frequently. You're going to have to win this by containing this last guy, so just go for the 5-prime. Let's not forget, also, that he still has 24 outside pips (plus the guy in the air), so if you luck into a closeout, you have something like 40% gammons.
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Old 02-13-2018, 01:39 PM   #3
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Location: Still bitter about '94
Posts: 3,251
Re: 5-1 to play

I would go with the simple 15/9. Any seven makes the 2 point, 6-2 makes the bar point, and it minimizes shots. I think black's chances of winning are good enough that risks don't need to be taken at this point. I don't think black's chances are so good that extra aggression trying for gammons is advisable.
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