I made my move with glee and was quite surprised when it turned out to be thoroughly incorrect.

I hit on the 20pt with glee. But wont be surprised if incorrect .

I suspect that after hitting on 20pt, her remaining blot is easy to safety with 1s, 3, 5s and 6s.

So total good numbers for her after this play when she enters back and either hits out 7pt blot or safeties her other blot are 18 depending on what to count.

After hitting on 18pt, her remaining blot is harder to safety: 1s and 3s only. She has ~6 less good numbers after that, again depending on what to count.

Why do I think about hitting that blot? Because I have a stronger board and an anchor.

I do not know if that is the correct plan and if that is not superseded by my own safety concerns - like not getting stuck there with her 5pt covered.

But with better board and an anchor I probably should play more aggressively than defensively here. Enter and 22/18.

Hitting on the 20 point is a 0.192 blunder over hitting on the 18 point.

Deh, I hear your reasoning, and it makes sense, but I would have thought that preventing the building of a decent home board took priority. I suppose as well that hitting on 18 makes you less likely to get stuck behind a decent trap with the base on 22.

I would suspect that duplication makes up a big part of the choice here. Not hitting on the 20pt leaves the opponent 3s and 5s to come in and 3s and 5s to cover his 5 pt.

One more argument, which I completely missed in my comment, is the game plan. With this roll, we are not running and not priming, we are gladly starting attacking in general and blitzing in particular with our deep points made and 10 checkers in the zone. And when we blitz, we normally go all out. Safety is a minor concern. My concern is to prevent her from anchoring, bring checkers is the zone (cannot do any of those now), and to maximize my chances to hit something (I can).