I'd play 11/3 8/4 6/2. We're not likely to get hit and since we're up 64 pips it's not a big deal anyway. If we make the 4-point we're much better off.

I cannot explain the best play here.

XGID=aBBB-bE-A-bA-----d-bb-bB--:0:0:1:44:0:0:1:0:10


1. XG Roller+ 11/3 8/4 6/2 eq:-0.597
Player: 32.44% (G:11.74% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 67.56% (G:16.78% B:0.59%)

2. XG Roller+ 11/3 6/2(2) eq:-0.675 (-0.078)
Player: 31.07% (G:11.19% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 68.93% (G:18.32% B:0.65%)

3. XG Roller+ 11/7 8/4 6/2(2) eq:-0.726 (-0.129)
Player: 30.71% (G:11.96% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 69.29% (G:19.34% B:0.79%)

As always, we could give more helpful explanations if you told us what play you liked and why.

1. 11/3 8/4 6/2
Good: 6s do not play, we hold the board longer. 2 spares on 6pt. If we are missed, we do not need to cover immediately.
Bad: 11 returns, 2s are duplicated.

2. 11/3 6/2(2)
Good: 5 returns.
Bad: Only 1 spare on 6pt. One more checker out of play. No potential to make 4pt.
This is the play I chose OtB

3. 11/7 8/4 6/2(2)
Good: 2 covers
Bad: extra 52 for her from the bar. Only 1 spare on 6pt. One more checker out of play.

Out of the two slotting plays I prefer #3. In play #1 we will use only 21 22 24 25 to cover, so my thinking was "why then slot in the first place".

In the abstract/generic terms it looks like we are aiming for as strong as possible front position that has more probability to hold in order to have a chance to extract the back checkers. Maybe the 2 spares on 6pt and killed 6s are the most significant factor here.