What is the right play and why? Thank you!

Here's a good example of a really hard middle game problem. Black has 8 or 9 more or less reasonable choices, all of which have some significant drawback. I'd play 24/20 24/21 over the board. The downside is it releases White's stack on the 6-point for a blitz. The upside is that Black's rear checkers are in very good shape if the blitz fails, and Black keeps the midpoint and doesn't disturb his good front position.

In this position black's game plan is either going to be hitting or priming. Consistent with that is at least splitting the back checkers and possibly slotting the 9pt. But since white already escaped one checker, you plan a hitting strategy against one checker. (prime 2 or more checkers, hitting plans against 1, unless you are close to a 6 prime already) So that leaves bringing up both back men. If one gets hit, you have chances to make an advanced anchor with the other.

I'm not convinced that you're supposed to split the back men here. White has you outboarded and an attacking, rather than priming, position with holes on 4 and 5 and 5 min on his 6. You're also behind 34 pips so staying back works in that way, too.

Having said that, I'm not sure which offensive play I really like. 10 and 9 leaves 17 numbers and 3 blots, while 9 and 3 lets him get to direct escape range with tempo. Making the 7 leaves 15 numbers, but equalizes boards (in quantity, 654 is obviously much better than 126). This is a really tough play.

On balance I think I'm going to play 9 and 3. It's the most direct bid to strengthen up front as quickly as possible while also keeping your formation and anchor intact if things go wrong.

I did a GNUBG rollout and will post some results and stuff in spoiler text below: