This position came up in a chouette I played last weekend.
How would you play this 4-2 and what is your explanation.

I am torn between 9/3 and 20/14, but I suspect the difference between the 2 moves is dramatic.

I think there is a good chance that we get a shot as he bears in next turn if we choose 9/3, but if he rolls a 4 and runs then I think we are the underdog, which tends to push me toward running and controlling the outfield.

I don't have the knowledge to distinguish which of these 2 moves is superior. I just hope these are the 2 moves to be considering! I wouldn't hit, as right now he is stuck at the back, and I think we want to keep him there.

You have not considered the best move yet! and it's also the only move as all other moves are blunders.

when in doubt. Just watched Robertie beat Doug Roberts in a match on twitch. nice

My initial reaction was either 9/5 7/5 or 7/1*.

With 9/5 7/5 you threaten to shut him out with a 65, 63, 53 or hit him with any 3, 5, 6 if he doesn't roll a hard 6 to get out. Even if he does roll a hard 6, he cannot cover the 23 pt blot so you have a chance to roll back in and hit him, which would be a disastrous outcome since he would have to roll a hard 1 to come back in and stuck behind a 5 prime. Getting hit is not bad since it is somewhat difficult for white to bring in his 15 and 17 pt checkers in safely.

7/1* has similar thinking, but it seems bad since rolling a 5 or a 16 would be very bad for black and there's no particular need to leave that many shots open. Plus, black would need to try hard to cover the 5 pt even if white fans.

So I would go for 9/5 7/5

Didn't even see 9/5 7/5, very annoying. Not sure I would have played it had I seen it, even though I suspect that's the move.

1. XG Roller++ 9/5 7/5 eq:+0,561
Player: 73,81% (G:21,02% B:0,54%)
Opponent: 26,19% (G:3,89% B:0,06%)

2. XG Roller++ 20/14 eq:+0,383 (-0,179)
Player: 68,70% (G:15,50% B:0,49%)
Opponent: 31,30% (G:5,05% B:0,11%)

3. XG Roller++ 9/5 4/2 eq:+0,282 (-0,279)
Player: 65,36% (G:14,77% B:0,38%)
Opponent: 34,64% (G:4,89% B:0,07%)

4. XG Roller++ 20/16 9/7 eq:+0,250 (-0,312)
Player: 62,67% (G:16,46% B:0,88%)
Opponent: 37,33% (G:5,16% B:0,06%)

5. XG Roller++ 20/16 4/2 eq:+0,237 (-0,324)
Player: 62,60% (G:18,48% B:0,95%)
Opponent: 37,40% (G:8,51% B:0,19%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


I could do rollouts, bu tI think XG++ is enough to show how big a blunder the other moves are.

I had a position very similar to this last week where I played safe and didn't make the 5 point. Turns out it was an error. I'm making the 5 point.