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Old 03-23-2018, 09:39 PM   #1
deh
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 156
4-1 to play

White - Pips 110 (-22)

Black - Pips 132 (+22)
Black to Play 4-1
Created with Diagram Builder


In case you do not want to make 12pt, please explain why

What is the best play?




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Old 03-24-2018, 06:22 AM   #2
RolldUpTrips
adept
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 775
Re: 4-1 to play

You don't need another landing spot to clear against this holding game. 9-8 is a pretty strong formation against the bar point, and the 12 looks rather awkward to me with all of these stripped points. I don't love the idea of sending back another sniper already up 27 after the roll, but you can't really help it here. I'm gonna play to the 11, and am torn about which to hit. Hitting on 12 seems a little safer since all of your guys are past more of his guys, but, on the other hand, when you hit on 15 sometimes miracles happen (like immediate dance) and you win a lucky gammon. i guess winning chances can't be THAT much different and I'll just hit on 15 and play to 11.
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Old 03-26-2018, 04:35 PM   #3
Karol Szczerek
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Poland
Posts: 91
Re: 4-1 to play

I wouldn't make the 12 because it would be too inflexible vs White's bar anchor. Second reason is I really want to hit the second checker as I'm still not leading the race. White board isn't very strong right now, and her return hits from the bar are risky due to many blots floating around. I first considered 13/12*/8 to keep the back checker as far as possible while bringing nice builder to attack. I think hitting 16/15* with either 13/9 or 9/5 looks better though. These plays give White more rolls that doesn't secure her 2nd exposed blot.
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Old 03-26-2018, 06:55 PM   #4
deh
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 156
Re: 4-1 to play

1. XG Roller+ 16/15* 9/5 eq:+0.159
Player: 61.33% (G:13.17% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 38.67% (G:6.73% B:0.06%)

2. XG Roller+ 16/15* 13/9 eq:+0.122 (-0.037)
Player: 60.47% (G:11.34% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 39.53% (G:6.44% B:0.06%)

3. XG Roller+ 13/12* 12/8 eq:+0.108 (-0.051)
Player: 59.90% (G:11.84% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 40.10% (G:6.76% B:0.05%)

4. XG Roller+ 16/15* 15/11 eq:+0.097 (-0.062)
Player: 59.73% (G:8.56% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 40.27% (G:4.32% B:0.03%)

5. XG Roller+ 16/12* 13/12 eq:+0.006 (-0.153)
Player: 56.65% (G:7.90% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 43.35% (G:5.33% B:0.04%)
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