Okay, so this is an 11 point match and I'm up 3-1. I played 24/21(2) 8/5(2). I figured this was a good balance of moving my back checkers up and anchoring to threaten white if he dumps some of his huge 12 point stack in his outfield and building my board in case i do get a hit. But apparently this move was a blunder and only the 8th best play (maybe even worse i have to roll out moves that were only evaluated in 2ply)

I'm curious what people think the best play is.

make that the 13th best play after rolling out the 2ply moves lol.. i guess i have to do the 1 ply ones as well

okay here is what i think.

i think the move 24/21(2) is clearly wrong.

You are kinda breaking contact with 24/21(2) , you give now white the oppurtunity to play checkers behinf your back checkers.

So in my opinion you need to have at least one checker back on the 24point.

I would split my backcheckers to have more outfield control, and to have more indirect shots at blots white might later get into his outfield. i could split to 21point or 18point.

other 3's i probably would make the 5point to have a board when i hit white,
so i play 8/5(2).

its just a question whether i split to the 21point (and then play a 3 in my outerboard) or to the 18point. my instinct would say to split to the 18 point. provoking hits.
but when i count every roll for white, and then blacks shots, it doesn;t seem to matter much.
maybe i shoudl count again, i have no time, i have to have dinner now.
bye,
let me know how i did.

My thought process is along these lines.

1) I really want to make my 5 point and it seems like I don't need more than two 3s to move from the 24 point. So making my 5 point gets first priority.

2) My next checker goes to the 21 point to make it harder for white to play safe.

3a) I don't think I would allow white to play safely behind us thus playing 24/21 with the last 3 unwanted.
3b) Slot the 3-point or get another builder down. Slotting the 3 point now makes it a little less desireable to hit a shot next roll and we can expect it to come soon. We are not going to win the game from the mid point so I don't mind stripping it for higher chances for building more prime. So 13/10 is my choise.

Now I'll go look what Snowie has to teach me this time...

On first glance, I make my 5pt with 11/8/5 and 8/5, and split 24/21. White has no home board so I'm not afraid of being hit. I expect to get a shot this move or the next.

24-21 with exactly one checker is pretty mandatory....he is ahead in the race and you are building your board freely and preapring to hit a shot. That's your plan and you should move accordingly...

Also seems 8-5 (2) is also mandatory for the same reason. Build board prepare for shot.

As for the last 3...umm...I guess 11-8 is ok or bringing down a builder or pretty much anything really.

Grunching:

The problem with making the anchor here is that Villain has a ton of spares, and can just play behind you and wait for good rolls.

Much of the value of the anchor also comes from preventing a blitz, but you aren't real worried about that here, with the better home board already, and about to get better still. Plus Villain has no attacking position whatsoever yet.

So the strategic goal should be to cover as much of your opponent's side of the board as possible for the next roll or two. If Villain starts to build a forward position at that point, you can always reconsider, and look to grab an anchor or escape a runner.

With that strategy in mind, there are a whole bunch of candidate rolls, so it's not surprising that your move came in 8th.

I'd probably play 24/21 8/5(2) 6/3:
- Sacrifice coverage of the 14-point to keep a double-shot if Villain hits light
- Make a home board point and slot another

But you could make the case for a whole bunch of other moves, such as splitting to the bar point to cover the entire outfield, and/or not slotting the 3-point because you don't want a blot hanging around if you do get a chance to hit.

If I'm right at all, of course.

Edit: Wow, your move is 13th, interesting... probably making Villain's bar point is better (trying to turn it into a race/who rolls big doubles first), and maybe some of the moves where you just stay back with both runners.

I'd probably play 24/18(2). You aren't actually down many pips after this roll so you may well achieve a racing victory. If you fall behind in the race, White will instead probably have trouble clearing his midpoint versus your midpoint and bar.

Something along the lines of sheetsworld's suggestion may turn out to be the best play though.

well it seems like most people are on the right track, so i guess ill post snowie's answer. but im a little confused why 24/18(2) doesn't even show up on the list of moves..

anyways after rollouts snowie says the top 4 plays are:

1. 24/21 11/8 8/5(2) 0.023
2. 24/21 8/5(2) 6/3 0.008
3. 24/21 8/5(3) -.001
4. 24/21 13/10 8/5(2) -0.010

After these 4 the equities start to drop off more, so it seems like 24/21 8/5(2) is a must and the best final 3 is 11/8.

gnu has all the 24/21 8/5(2) moves best and then 24/18(2).

im confused why 24/18(2) isn't even listed by snowie. the only reason i can think is if it's so bad that it doesn't consider it, which would kinda make sense since it doesnt make the 5 point and it gives white more spots to dump checkers than 24/21(2). what spot does gnu have 24/18(2)? and did you do rollouts?

Extreme Gammon chimes in

1. XG roller 24/21 11/5 8/5 eq:+0.045
Player : 49.02% (G:14.28% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 50.98% (G:6.91% B:0.22%)

2. XG roller 24/21 8/5(2) 6/3 eq:+0.014 (-0.031)
Player : 48.42% (G:14.39% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 51.58% (G:7.30% B:0.25%)

3. XG roller 24/21 13/10 8/5(2) eq:+0.014 (-0.032)
Player : 48.27% (G:13.94% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 51.73% (G:7.03% B:0.24%)

4. XG roller 24/21 8/5(3) eq:+0.013 (-0.032)
Player : 48.27% (G:14.00% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 51.73% (G:7.07% B:0.23%)

5. XG roller 24/21 13/7 8/5 eq:+0.004 (-0.041)
Player : 48.32% (G:13.32% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 51.68% (G:7.18% B:0.25%)

I was somewhat drunk when I recommended 24/18(2) and it is very obvious to me now that a play with 24/21 8/5(2) is streets ahead. However I would still expect 24/18(2) to be better than 24/21(2) 8/5(2) and so it is, although the narrowness of victory surprises me.

On 3-ply evaluation GNU hates 24/18(2), rating it much worse than 24/21(2) 8/5(2). However on rollout it has it as a better play - only just, but outside the margin of error of 0.05.



The failure to make the 5 point and the additional places to put spares are less important in contrast to 24/21(2) 8/5(2) for two reasons. Firstly, any potential hit opportunities will probably come later, when the midpoint is cleared, so that there will be plenty of time to make the 5 point in the meantime. Secondly, a lot of victories are expected to come from pure racing, where having made the 5 point is irrelevant. One downside of 24/21(2) is that if you roll big numbers and achieve a racing lead, the back men are going to be tough to extract.

Interestingly, 24/18(2) was rated worse on cubeless rollout, but better on cubeful. You can see that it's actually rated better even though it achieves less victories and less gammons (although gammon losses are lower too). No doubt this is because the victories the holding game leads to are crushing ones with inefficient double/drop cube turns, while racing victories after making the bar give the possibility of efficient cubes.

In Australia? No way, dude. You were pissed out of your mind.