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3 2 very lategame

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04-04-2018 , 08:10 AM

TurboTakedown

stranger

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 4

Hey,

So I was playing against gnu backgammon and rolled a good number (3 and 2) in this late match where I am losing hard. Right away I know I have to hit his blot with 24/22 to have any chance of winning but I am surprised by tutor mode telling me to make a strange play with the 3. Tutor mode tells me 24/22 and and 15/12 instead of 24/22 and 4/1.

I feel like 4/1 should be the perfect way to close my homeboard so I can safely bring all of my checkers home, but BNU backgammon tells me to leave a blot on the 1 point. And the difference to win the game is 20%, can anyone here help me understand why I shouldn't play the 4/1?

Here is the board: https://imgur.com/a/J9WLx

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04-04-2018 , 08:30 AM

bleep69

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 483

You want another blot hit, so that you get a chance to pick up his second checker when you re-enter. If you can do that, you will double his pip count. With luck you'll be able to close your board and have 2 of his checkers stuck, which will greatly increase your chances.

That's my guess.

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04-04-2018 , 08:59 AM

Robertie

old hand

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954

This may help. If you close out just the one checker, your winning chances are 20% to 23%, depending on exactly where your three spares end up when you start bearing off. If you can close out two checkers, your chances will be in the 65%-68% range. You won't have a double yet after hitting the second checker and closing your board, but you'll be getting close.

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04-04-2018 , 11:31 AM

jjpregler

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974

You need to pick up both checkers here.

If you close out just one checker, you need luck to win. You would need GNU to fan several times then limp around.

And closing out 1 checker does not even guarantee you get off the gammon. If he comes in and out early in your bearoff, he would still be a favorite to gammon you and win the match.

**I think Bill missed that this is a dead cube.

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