3-2 response to a 3-1 opening
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 25
On the one hand, GNU espouses 24/21, 13/11 for an opening roll of 3-2, which I like. On the other, it prefers 24/22, 13/10 if this same roll is in response to an opponent's opening roll of 3-1 played in the usual way: 17/20, 19/20.
I don't understand this change of position. Given the opponent has made their 20 point, it seems to me there is all the more reason to come up to the 21 point: thwarting the beginnings of a prime, affording more escape numbers, and offering a wider coverage of the outfield. Certainly (and I use that word haltingly) it is no more dangerous than 24/22.
What am I failing to appreciate here?
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 1,954
If you split to the 21-point and your opponent points on you (or hits loose and you don't hit back) you're in bad shape because he's either made or is threatening to make the very best 3-point board.
If you split to the 22-point and he points on or attacks you there you're not in as bad a situation, because when he makes his 3-point the 4-point remains open.
When you have a choice early in the game, it's usually slightly better to split to the point your opponent is less eager to make -- less downside when he throws a joker, and almost as much upside when he rolls badly. Another example is an opening 4-3, where 24/21 13/9 slightly beats 24/20 13/10.
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 25
So splitting to the 21-point may not be more dangerous from a hitting-numbers standpoint, but it IS more dangerous in terms of the consequences of being hit, just tilting the risk/reward scale. Adjusting to this point of view will require some retraining as I tend to be aggressive with my splitting, especially in the early stages of a game against an undeveloped board! And that would include my 4-3 opening, sadly. But I get it, and I appreciate the clarity on the matter, Bill. Thank you.
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 44
especially in the early stages of a game against an undeveloped board
After opponent has played his 3-1, his board is hardly undeveloped!
Being on roll against the opening position (with doublets playing) is worth about +0.1pt
Being on roll after opponent's 3-1 is worth -0.2pt. He got a mediocre racing roll, didn't split ; one could see the whole 0.3 difference as board development advantage.
Note that the 4-3 opening splits are very close, while 24/21 13/11 after the five point is made is a small but clear error.
On the other hand, if you are getting primed in a more significant way, you may have to split aggressively anyway (maybe optimistically would be a better wording), even against a strong board.
