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Old 10-28-2018, 04:08 PM   #1
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 196
3-2, end game

White - Pips 95 (-20)

Black - Pips 115 (+20)
Black to Play 3-2
Created with Diagram Builder

What is your play and why?

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Old 10-29-2018, 01:02 AM   #2
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 830
Re: 3-2, end game

I'm gonna play to 11 and 3. I want to maximize outfield coverage for his jumps.
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Old 11-01-2018, 05:35 AM   #3
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Re: 3-2, end game

11 and 10. I don't want to break up the wall. 11 and 10 lets me get the pieces closer to safety. If 10 gets captured there is less ways that the other vulnerable piece can get captured than if you played 12 and 9 where 9 gets captured.

All the future possible rolls next turn seem better for you than 12 and 9. This assumes you don't get captured next turn.
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Old 11-05-2018, 07:19 PM   #4
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 564
Re: 3-2, end game

I think slotting 12/7 is worth a look. A lot of White's 6s are going to be pretty good in any case, and you may get a shot at the checker on the 23 if you get hit, so you aren't paying full price to getting hit.

Don't get me wrong, you are paying pretty big to the 6s on average compared to say, 12/10 14/11, but you also gain pretty big on the non 6s. I'm thinking you have a good cube on a lot of White's numbers after playing 12/7 where you don't after 12/10 14/11. This could be something like if White owned the cube, you would prefer a safer play, but because you get a good cube in on White's bad numbers, you can make the more volatile play.
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Old 11-07-2018, 04:40 PM   #5
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 196
Re: 3-2, end game

1. XG Roller+ 12/7 eq:+0.213
Player: 57.45% (G:7.21% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 42.55% (G:13.06% B:0.32%)

2. XG Roller+ 14/9 eq:+0.173 (-0.039)
Player: 56.21% (G:6.74% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 43.79% (G:9.56% B:0.26%)

3. XG Roller+ 14/11 5/3 eq:+0.155 (-0.058)
Player: 55.57% (G:6.73% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 44.43% (G:10.10% B:0.28%)

4. XG Roller+ 14/12 5/2 eq:+0.112 (-0.100)
Player: 54.52% (G:6.31% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 45.48% (G:8.89% B:0.22%)

5. XG Roller+ 14/11 12/10 eq:+0.105 (-0.107)
Player: 54.09% (G:6.38% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 45.91% (G:9.25% B:0.26%)
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