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3-1 middle game 3-1 middle game
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10-06-2018 , 01:53 PM
#1
deh
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journeyman
Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 202
White - Pips 160 (+16)

Black - Pips 144 (-16)
Black to Play 3-1
Created with Diagram Builder

What is your play and why?


3-1 middle game Quote
10-07-2018 , 09:59 AM
#2
Robertie
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old hand
Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954
A bad roll in a bad position. We have to leave a blot somewhere, so I'll play 6/2 -- minimum shots and at least it unstacks.
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10-07-2018 , 01:46 PM
#3
deh
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journeyman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robertie
A bad roll in a bad position. We have to leave a blot somewhere, so I'll play 6/2 -- minimum shots and at least it unstacks.
That is the best play, thank you. If we move a checker from 6pt back to mid, 13/9, 8/4, 6/2 become equal equity.

What is the reason for 16/13 16/15 being bad? We are ahead, so trying to disengage formally would be ok. Is it because we are prone to get behind in the race in this position? Or because hitting allows the opponent to bring ~2 checkers in the attacking zone? Or because it leaves 16 shots? 13/9 also leaves 16 shots, but it is not nearly as bad.
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10-07-2018 , 04:39 PM
#4
Robertie
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old hand
Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954
Quote:
Originally Posted by deh
That is the best play, thank you. If we move a checker from 6pt back to mid, 13/9, 8/4, 6/2 become equal equity.

What is the reason for 16/13 16/15 being bad? We are ahead, so trying to disengage formally would be ok. Is it because we are prone to get behind in the race in this position? Or because hitting allows the opponent to bring ~2 checkers in the attacking zone? Or because it leaves 16 shots? 13/9 also leaves 16 shots, but it is not nearly as bad.
Points are really valuable, especially in a bad position where we don't have enough points. Plus you left a shot in the process. And if you're not hit, look at how your rolls will play next turn. At least half will leave yet another shot. Forget about the race, because your chance of getting home from here without ever being hit are pretty small.
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10-07-2018 , 04:58 PM
#5
deh
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journeyman
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Thank you, Bill!


XGID=-a---bF-C---dD--Bb-bb-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10



1. XG Roller+ 6/2 eq:-0.224
Player: 46.57% (G:7.81% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 53.43% (G:17.65% B:0.41%)

2. XG Roller+ 13/9 eq:-0.251 (-0.026)
Player: 45.85% (G:8.38% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 54.15% (G:17.85% B:0.45%)

3. XG Roller+ 8/4 eq:-0.298 (-0.073)
Player: 44.65% (G:7.39% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 55.35% (G:18.29% B:0.44%)

4. XG Roller+ 16/15 16/13 eq:-0.398 (-0.174)
Player: 43.06% (G:6.23% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 56.94% (G:19.83% B:0.41%)
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