Every time I see one of these, the answer tends to be to make the 5 point. Even when it isn't the best move, it is seldom a significant error, so I have just decided to always play to the 5 point in these situations. Playing the other move, whatever that happen to be, is sometimes slightly more correct, and most times a blunder when it's not the right move, so it's, on average, better to always play to the 5, IMHO.

I don't think making the 5 point is correct here. You're outboarded and would be leaving three blots. I think you have to put your opponent on the bar so he has to use half of his roll to get back in. I'd play 13/9*

I make the 5 point. After you make the 5 point your are outboarded 3 -2, but you have the best point. Additionally, you have the 8 point with builders to play a priming game.

Yes, you are leaving 3 blots. But he has no builders to make any inner board points. Unless he rolls the exact combinations, he's not likely to be able to make another inner board point for another 2 rolls.

In that time you are likely to either make an anchor if hit or consolidate if missed.

And if I am hitting on the 9 point, I would hit 10/9* and play 17/14 with the 3. If I am hitting it is to give me time to clean up my 3 blots, why make a 4th one to hit when you can hit without making a 4th blot.

But I still think the 5 point is the 5 point and it is early. As bleep already mentioned, when it is wrong, it is never wrong by that much, but when it is right, the alternative could be a blunder.

1. XG Roller++ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.216
Player: 56.48% (G:17.86% B:1.13%)
Opponent: 43.52% (G:16.90% B:0.53%)

2. XG Roller++ 17/14 10/9* eq:+0.212 (-0.005)
Player: 56.42% (G:15.08% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 43.58% (G:14.89% B:0.41%)

3. XG Roller+ 21/17 eq:+0.174 (-0.042)
Player: 55.30% (G:13.40% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 44.70% (G:12.95% B:0.20%)

4. XG Roller+ 10/7 8/7 eq:+0.144 (-0.073)
Player: 55.21% (G:14.22% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 44.79% (G:15.90% B:0.28%)

5. XG Roller+ 10/9* 9/6 eq:+0.129 (-0.087)
Player: 54.43% (G:14.54% B:0.87%)
Opponent: 45.57% (G:15.89% B:0.29%)