http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbb...mes;read=83899

I know mike posted how to post an image on here...but this is honestly much easier (sorry?).

Seems pretty close. I'm not sure you're going to get an answer on principle here that's going to tell you more than a good rollout. If he drops, you're 75%. If he takes.. you're around 75% once gammons and further cube action is dead (obviously he recubes you). If you play on.. can you really be 75%? I dunno. Maybe. You have gammons to win the match outright, sometimes you lose to 2/2, sometimes you lose to 1/2, sometimes you take and get gammoned and just lose. If top players can really know the equities in something like this (to more detail than "about 75%"), and do the math on the fly, that's pretty good. I'd ship it over to clarify my task and avoid ****ing up a future cube if the game turns around.

Even though the gammon rate in this position will be only 15% or so.
Its not risky to try for it. Since the doubling window at 2a/3a is about 70/75%
it would be a Double pass, winning only 1 point. So play on and double when there are no more gammon chances (when its a race).

Why should blue even consider a double here? He lets white recube right away and play for the match right now. Blue is a slim favorite right now.

Double seems clear to me. In a straight race this would be a pass and it's not clear to me that the contact favors white here. He will get some fly shots, but also risk being pointed on later on. Whites bad forward structure also means that hitting dowsn't guarantee a win.

As white I think I would pass this, but not really too confident about that. With better structure and better chance to contain blue after a hit I would take.