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+17 pip count adjustment when on the bar

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08-15-2023 , 05:43 AM

a_free_lunch

newbie

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 36

Suppose that you are on the bar, that your opponent has made all but one of their home board points, and that your opponent doubles. Is there a simple way to adjust your pip count to handle such positions? When I was thinking about this just now, it occurred to me that it might be sensible to increase your pip count by about 17, on the grounds that

On average, it will take you 36/11 rolls to enter (since the probability of entering is 11/36).
So, on average, you will waste 36/11 - 1 = 25/11 rolls
Since the average roll is worth about 8.167 pips, this means wasting 8.167 * (25/11) = 18.56... pips
However, being on the bar does give you some contact, so I reduced this to 17 pips

I was wondering whether anyone has checked whether this rule is indeed reliable? Of course, one does need to combine it with a racing formula: for concreteness, let's suppose that we are planning on taking when our racing deficit is smaller than 12%.

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08-15-2023 , 04:17 PM

bgblitz

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 74

Sounds plausible to me. IIRC Kleinman(?) introduced phantom(?) pips and it was in the same ballpark as your formula. My weak memories are not too helpful

just that your approach was at least similar if not identical.

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