Quote:
Originally Posted by tame_deuces
I don't even think belief is based on probability, so who really cares? Besides this is a system of unknowns so one doesn't even KNOW the probabilities compared to say a simple game.
I've said this before but it bears repeating. Stu's logic is perfectly analogous to this:
A: "Do you believe you are going to die tomorrow?"
B: "No."
A: Do you concede that there is a chance however slim that you might die tomorrow?"
B: "Yes."
A: "Congratulations, you are a secretly suicidal".
I would change the last one to "A: Congratulations you secretly believe you are going to die tomorrow"
again, person B is using the word "believe" as it is commonly used and Stu is using it in a way that he thinks is more valuable
it may in fact be more valuable (I don't think it is and the many problems brought up in these threads support this)...
but the important point is what I have been trying to drill into his head...that he can't take people's statements, assume different meanings of the words they use, then claim they are incorrect (well he can, but it's useless)
by Stu's use of the word "believe," I believe that I will die tomorrow
but if someone asked me if I believe that I will die tomorrow and I said, "Yes," it would give the wrong impression because they use the word "believe" in a different way than I would have to in order to say "Yes."
I think the typical use of the word is much more valuable than Stu's use...
It is very convenient to be able to guage a person's estimation of the likelihood of something being true by asking if they "believe" it to be true. If they answer yes, they probably think it very likely to be true, if they answer no, they probably don't think it very likely to be true.
in most instances, I don't really care whether or not a person thinks there is no chance that something is true or there is a 0.01% chance (enough to possibly influence some specific behavior) that it is true