Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
1. Why is the argument you quoted not a "not true scotsman" fallacy? That's exactly what it looks like to me.
I think it is explained well enough even in the first article, the one you linked, without having to read the counter argument I linked, but how about this:
There is today a criteria for "
being Scottish", which might be '
subject has a Scottish passport'.
There used to be previous criteria for "
being a person in the Northern parts of the British Isles", which perhaps included '
subject lived in the Northern parts of the British Isles', but also '
subject's favourite Bond is Sean Connery". Not only is this far too broad for today's classification, it is NOT the same classification, it is a large superset.
The claim you have offered is that 80% of children that considered themselves Scottish at the time no longer do.
But the facts are that those children (*) only considered themselves to be from the Northern parts of the British Isles, and it is not at all clear that they
ever considered themselves to be Scottish.
In summary: perhaps there
are many children that used to be but are no longer gender dysphoric, but this cannot reasonably be demonstrated from the data at hand.
(*) Perhaps I am not reading the article properly, but I was shocked at this excerpt: "
Singh notes that of the 139 participants she successfully contacted for followup, “88 (63.3%) met diagnostic criteria for GID in childhood and the remaining 51 (36.7%) were subthreshold for the diagnosis” ".
So, in the original study,
only 63% of the participants met
THAT criteria?! The criteria that is much more broad than the modern criteria being compared to????
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
2. Is there a reliable, objective way for differentiating, at the current age, "true" gender dysphoria from children who just really really strongly feel they're a girl in a boy's body but stop feeling like in their late teens?
3. If so, and there is an objective reliable test, why are rates of diagnosis so different between equally accepting cultures?
Well this would be an important question, though it could be viewed as moving the goalposts away from the original "80%" claim. I thought I read something in the TransAdvocate article, but it must have been a link or two away from it, that mentioned some of today's clinics having 100% accuracy rates. I'd take that with a pinch of salt, but what I would suggest is that there are some alarming anecdotes of zealot parents making tragic decisions that are obviously messed up, but when these stories are the ones you hear most much about, it skews public opinion.
The most obvious point that surely you'll agree, is that there is a chasm of results between a desired 0% prediction failure and a claim of 80% prediction failure. You don't have to have perfect results in order to respond to spurious claims of enormous failure rates.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
As for homosexuality being a choice for most, the wildly varying prevalence of homosexuality and particularly homosexual pederasty (adult men ****ing underage boys - near ubiquitous in some cultures and near nonexistent in other) - show a large element of choice, or at the very least, prevalence being greatly affected by social norms.
I am obviously correct on these points if we were talking about something non-emotional, so it's bemusing that you chose to make such weak points because the topic is a current sacred cow due to the bigotry of the extremist gay lobby (the reverse was true 20 years ago, weirdly).
Social norms / customs is not the same as sexual attraction / preference. While I agree I have an emotional interest through empathy, in that I hate to see displays of bigotry against particular minority groups, I don't have an emotional investment in thinking about underlying causes. In fact my usual response to someone trying to justify their anti-homosexual bigotry is "so what if it is a choice?"