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Originally Posted by zumby
It seems nonsensical to say that "hypothesis X is a better explanation than hypothesis Y" and simultaneously hold that "hypothesis X is no more likely to be true than hypothesis Y", so I don't think you can be saying that. But I'm not sure what else you could be saying.
We may adopt a hypothesis for all kinds of reasons other than because we think it's true - we flew to the moon assuming the universe operated under Newtonian mechanics.
We may (and should) 'abductively prefer' a hypothesis with greater predictive power but there's no non-inductive reason to think the universe must be predictable, hence no reason to think this predictive hypothesis is more likely to be true.
Any argument that the "better hypothesis" (according to the criteria you provided above) is more likely to be true rests on induction or deduction from assumed axioms. That's kind of my point.
I've always said abductive reasoning is useful in selecting hypotheses - if we want to develop confidence in the veracity of those (or if we are waving in the general direction of abductive arguments and saying "therefore...God") we use deduction or induction. The extent to which an abductive argument is persuasive, is the extent to which it includes empiricism or deduction.
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Sure you can. A really common and important example is when a juror has to decide whether to vote guilty or not guilty.
I mean where it isnt possible in principle - we're speaking about arguments in support of a hypothesis, not artificial constraints imposed by the legal system.
"I dont have time to look for any further evidence*, so I'm going to pick one of these two hypotheses based on what I know now" doesnt mean additional empirical evidence isnt possible.
*Or I have time, but the court system is demanding I make my decision based on the presented evidence alone.
Last edited by bunny; 12-19-2012 at 03:59 PM.