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Originally Posted by Justin A
I don't see how this disagrees with me.
Because the analogy deals with "fact" differently than the way "fact" is being dealt with in Speldour's quote. The "fact" in question from Splendour is whether Jesus was raised from the dead, whereas the "fact" in question in the analogy would be some sort of "cause" of Jesus being raised from the dead.
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Yes that's under question, but it is impossible to determine absolutely whether it happened or not.
Isn't this true of almost anything? How would you "determine absolutely" that your straight flushes were caused by randomness?
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All we have is the evidence. The only possible thing we could have is 2,000 year old written evidence. I cannot conceive of any sort of evidence from that time period that would convince me that the resurrection actually happened.
But this is a different standard. Your standard is not whether it happened, but whether you can be convinced that it happened. It's important to note that you've deemed it impossible for you to be convinced, and therefore, you wouldn't be able to believe it even if it were true.
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I think you might be missing the point of the analogy. We are talking about conclusions that we can rationally come to based on evidence. In the Jesus example, the evidence is the Bible, and to some extent the historical context of the times based on what we know from other ancient writings. In the royal flush example, the evidence is that I have been dealt three royal flushes in a row.
You don't see how the analogy misfires completely? You've just switched from "RANDOMLY" to whether you were actually dealt three royal flushes in a row.
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Even if the cause of the royal flushes was just a random shuffle and no funny business, a rational person still should not believe that to be the case. Same goes for the Jesus example.
Look, you've switched back again. Now you're talking about believing something about randomness.
Besides, this is a very scary line to be taking. You're saying that one should believe something that is false, simply because what is true is so unlikely, EVEN IF IT'S TRUE.
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Right. Nothing we can say changes the fact that the Bible says it happened. Nothing we can say changes the fact that we saw three straight royal flushes.
And here we are back again.
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That doesn't mean we are justified in believing that we are playing in a fair game or that someone came back to life after being dead for a day and a half.
But according to you, we would never be justified in believing it's a fair game even if it is a fair game. This sounds intellectually disingenuous.