Quote:
Originally Posted by Concerto
Even allowing the (ludicrous imo) possibility of a self-adapting environment "evolving" to produce intelligence life, citing one example of it is not showing your work as to its likelihood.
You may think the mechanism that has produced intelligent life on earth is ludicrous, but it is also the reality we can observe and measure.
The existence of life on earth, while presently the only observable case of life in this universe, does tell us something important; it tells us that life CAN arise. You are right that we don’t know the probability of it happening, but we do know it is greater than zero.
We do not similarly know that the existence of a god is a meaningful possibility.
That is the whole point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Concerto
The claim was that alien abductions are "infinitely" more probable.
I responded to the meat of the claim, that they are more probable. It is not clear what it would mean for something to be "infinitely" more probable, so we have to strike the hyperbole to have something useful to discuss.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Concerto
We don't know aliens are a possibility. Seeing them in movies and speculating about how they might have arisen the same way we speculate we might have arisen is not a calculation of probability, much less a demonstration of the "infinitely" greater likelihood of that happening versus something else we don't know how to calculate the likelihood of.
What makes the aliens aliens to us, if they do exist, is that they live in a place we don’t. We would be aliens to the aliens.
You are simply mistaken when you claim we don’t know that aliens are a possibility, we are definitive evidence that they are.
There would be nothing extraordinary about “aliens” existence somewhere else in the universe, it would be fully explainable by what we already know about the universe.
The existence of a god on the other hand, requires the adding of a supernatural dimension, that we have not been able to find one whiff of evidence for in all of human history.
Clearly the existence of the phenomena compatible with reality as we know it is more likely.
You are focused on calculating the probability of life arising, but the only thing we need to know is that it is greater than zero. We do know that.
Adding "infinitely" is again just an appeal to hyperbole, and does not really add anything.